UK General Election 2015 - A View from the Asylum

Well, that was a jolly little election wasn’t it? The polls got it wrong. Or was it the Poles? (Blasted foreigners coming over here and taking away our sense of reality).

But then I thought the anti-immigration sentiment encouraged by UKIP had had some effect when I was told something about Exit Poles, only to discover I’d got the spelling wrong, and an Exit Poll was a system of finding out how people had actually voted (as opposed to how they said they would vote.

The Exit Polls told us that all the other polls had been wrong, and that far from being faced with a “Hung Parliament” (some say hanging is too good for them) there would probably be a Conservative government with a workable majority.

The trouble was that we had all learned to believe the earlier polls, and now we had the Exit Poll none of us believed it. Indeed one-time leader of the Liberal Democrats, Paddy Ashdown said if the Exit Poll was right he’d eat his hat. So far as I know this has not yet actually happened. A dollop of custard might help it go down, and it would be appropriately in line with the Party colour.

Similarly, ex-Labour Press Secretary Alistair Campbell said he’d eat his kilt. Again, yet another broken promise.

What do I think of Clegg?

So, in the end we did finish up with a Conservative Government, and now David Cameron (left) has got to learn how to govern without the moderating influence of the Liberal Democrats.

I’m sure we are all going to enjoy the ride, and I recommend we all hang on tightly and try not to scream too loudly. It’s going to be a scary ride for Cameron himself as he now heads a government with hugely reduced majority compared to the one enjoyed by the previous Coalition.

 

Many of the swivel-eyed loons on the Conservative back benches that John Major used to refer to as “the Bastards” are still there ready to kick up a rumpus over membership of the EU.

Once again we have gone through an electoral process that is increasingly falling to bits, as more and more Parties build up a following. “First-past-the-Post” cannot in any way be deemed as democratic in a multi-party environment. I’ve never been a great fan of either UKIP or the SNP, but they’ve thrown into sharp focus the ludicrous nature of our system.

One and a half million people voted for the SNP and got 56 seats. Nearly four million people voted UKIP and got 1 seat (they had two before, so that’s a 50% reduction). Who is going to tell me that this makes any kind of sense?

Under a proportional system the Conservatives would still have won (with about 250 seats), Labour would have come second (with about 200 seats), UKIP would have come third (with about 70 seats) and the Liberal Democrats would have come fourth (with about 50 seats). SNP and Green Party would also have been represented but with fewer than 50 seats.

What do I think of Cameron?

As the results from our ridiculous system came rolling in, it soon became obvious that the Exit Poll was actually spot on, and as the day after the night before began to shine its Tory-blue light into our bleary eyes, our ears picked up a strange sound, rather like dead flies falling on to a parquet floor. In fact, that’s what it was .. the sound of Party Leaders falling like dead flies: first of all Nick Clegg (right)

- who managed to retain his seat - resigned his leadership of the Liberal Democrats. 

Labour Leader & some guy in a suit

Then Ed Miliband (left) resigned as Leader of the Labour Party (having failed to convince the British people that what they needed was more distinct Socialism, more class envy, and acceptance that if they were not fat-cat bankers then they were some kind of victim).

And then – keeping his promise that if he failed to win the South Thanet Seat he would resign – UKIP Leader Nigel Farage (below) did in fact resign. It was the end of the war and the Farage Balloon had been deflated. He was now free to spend more time with his beer and fags.

UKIP - United Koff-sticks & Independent-Breweries Party

And on the third day he rose again!

After pressure from Party members Nigel Farage decided to un-resign. (Is that a word? My spell-checker’s accepted it anyway). Susan Evans, his appointed deputy, had enjoyed the shortest period of office in the history of the world. A pity – I quite like her.

And what are we to say about Scotland? Having lost the referendum on Independence, the SNP managed to destroy the Labour Party in Scotland and won all but a couple of seats. Their

Let's hear it for me!

leader Nicola Sturgeon (left) - a bit of cold fish in my view - was hailed as some kind of heroine, and you could sometimes see the flicker of a smile hovering around those thin lips. Now, thanks to the vagaries of our electoral system, she has 56 seats in the Westminster Parliament on only 9% of the UK vote.

The SNP is a National Party with a set of policies closely resembling Socialism. “National Socialist” .. now why does that ring a bell? A National Socialist Party with a charismatic leader. Oops! Now watch them make merry with Prime Minister Cameron. It won’t be long before the Scots are so fed up with the UK Government that the “Smiling Assassin” will be able to whip up enough enthusiasm for a second attempt at Independence.

Don’t even think about boycotting Haggis .. it was invented in England! It was in an English recipe book by 1615. It’s not found in Scottish documents until 1747. Crikey, that’s just over an hour and a half between them!

I must draw this academic analysis of the General Election to a close, happy in the knowledge that we have some excitement to look forward to in the shape of leadership elections for Labour and the Liberal Democrats. I was looking forward to a UKIP leadership election too but Mr Farage has denied me that pleasure by only pretending to resign in the first place.

©Lionel Beck

The Last Liberal Democrat in Town.

May 2015

Thatcher the Marmite Politician

I want to say, honestly, before writing anything else, that Margaret Thatcher always gave me the creeps. She made my skin crawl every time she opened her mouth. She was truly the "Marmite Politician". (For anyone not familiar with Marmite , it's a savoury spread made from yeast extract, and people either love it or hate it). Thatcher produced an equivalent divergence of opinion throughout the UK. I was one of those who hated her, with every fibre of my being.

 I am not such an idiot that I cannot recognise she had some positive qualities, and I am ready to acknowledge that she deserved some credit in certain areas; and I do not subscribe to the current torrent of abuse and vitriol populating the pages of Facebook and Twitter. Nor do I condone the idea of dancing in the streets because someone has died (with the possible exception of Adolph Hitler).  Ironically Thatcher was in part responsible for what has become a more brutalised society that is prepared to indulge in such behaviour. She implied there was no such thing as society, and encouraged an ethos in which the advancement of "self" was the way to go.

So now she has departed this life, it is time not to indulge in vitriolic abuse and bad behaviour. I would like to look back on her time in office dispassionately at why she was such a divisive figure. There were positives and negatives. In my own view (and apparently the view of about 40% of the country) the negatives hugely outweighed the positives. Here is my own (far from exhaustive) list of "positives" and "negatives" ..

Positives

1. In 1979, Britain was a basket case. The Trade Unions ran the country, i.e., mostly held it to ransom. Dictatorial union leaders and shop stewards brought their members out on strike at the drop of a hat. We made cars that fell to bits. Our public services were hide bound in inefficiency and bureaucracy. Our power supplies were unreliable.  Domestic rubbish piled up in the streets. The dead were left unburied.

Margaret Thatcher's government introduced controversial legislation to democratize the trade union movement, preventing wildcat strikes and emasculating the powers of individual trade union leaders to pursue their own political interests (which at that time seemed to be driven by an insane belief in the benefits of Communism). In this respect, over the coming years British Industry was able to start functioning again, based on the premise that in order to survive it was necessary to produce goods that other people wanted to buy.

OK - so that's one Positive.

I've only got two others:

 

2. She was not prepared to countenance the idea that a foreign power could engineer a military take-over of a group of islands in the south Atlantic considered to be British Sovereign territory.  I have always been prepared to consider the counter claim made by Argentina, but to my mind you do not settle it by military invasion, and so Margaret Thatcher did right, in the circumstances of the day, to send a British Task Force to take back the Falklands.

On the back of that successful operation, she was able to secure a second election victory by a grateful nation (which up to then was increasingly wary of everything else she was doing).

3. On the world stage she stood up to any other country's leaders without fear, and usually got her way.

I'm afraid that's the end of my Positives. In my opinion - job done. Thank you and good-bye; sadly not to be.

Negatives

1. She gave tenants of Council Houses (social housing) the legal right to purchase their home from the Local Authority, at a discounted price. This should have been a Positive (and it was for many people) but it became a Negative because she prohibited Local Authorities from investing the receipts from Council House sales in the building of new homes to rent. The theory, of course, is that property owners seem more likely to vote Conservative, than Council Tenants. Consequently local authorities were piling up huge financial reserves none of which could be used for the very important purpose of providing much-needed homes. That problem is still with us today.

2. She encouraged the closure of great swathes of manufacturing industry, including 99% of the country's coal mines, on the grounds of their financial inefficiency. This was done with such speed and apparent scant regard for the consequences on the hundreds of thousands of people thrown out of work, that the bitterness engendered survives to this day. No thought was given to making these industries efficient and serving the country. Just close them down.

3. Local Council services used to be funded (in addition to government grants) by the imposition of a tax system known as "The Rates". What you paid depended upon the notional "Rateable Value" of your house. The bigger and grander the property, the more you paid. Council tenants were exempt, and if you didn't own property you didn't pay rates. This was clearly unfair and needed reform. Margaret Thatcher's solution was a disaster .. The "Community Charge" - which came to be known as the "Poll Tax". Quite simply this stated that every individual paid a set sum per year, irrespective of whether you were a low-paid worker living in a two-up/two-down Victorian terrace house, or whether you were a member of the "landed gentry" living in a great stately pile on a country estate. Basically the richest man in the country paid the same local taxes as the poorest. Clearly this was no fairer than the system it replaced. It was foisted on Scotland first as an experiment, and then on the rest of the country. It caused social unrest, protests, and riots in the streets.

The legacy of this is that the whole of Scotland can now boast only one Conservative Member of Parliament.

One of the first actions of Margaret Thatcher's Conservative successor was to abolish the "Poll Tax".

Well, it seems I've listed three Negatives and three Positives. I could go on and on with the Negatives but I fear I have gone on for too long already, so I'll leave it here as an even split between good and bad; back to the Marmite analogy!

UK GENERAL ELECTION - It's the Dave & Nick Show!

Well, that has been the weirdest General Election I have ever experienced. Usually a national "swing" from one Party to another is easily discernible, and once you've a dozen or constituency results in you can see which way the whole thing is likely to end up.

But not this time. There was no discernible pattern.

Some seats went from Conservative to Labour, others from Labour to Conservative, others from Labour to Liberal Democrat, others from Liberal Democrat to Conservative. In two adjacent London constituencies previously held by Liberal Democrats, one was defeated by a Conservative, and the other increased his Liberal Democrat majority. In the north of England one seat experienced a 20% swing (almost unheard of) from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

The vagaries of the British electoral system resulted in the Liberal Democrats increasing their national vote and ending up with fewer seats than before. Gordon Brown's Labour Party suffered the biggest losses, though were spared the predicted wipe-out. David Cameron's Conservative not only got the biggest share of the national vote but also gained the most seats, and yet were denied a working majority in the House of Commons.

Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats did a deal with the Tories to form Britain's first Coalition Government since the second World War. I am fairly comfortable with that, considering their combined votes represents 60% of the electorate, and in the serious circumstances in which we find ourselves it is imperative that we have a strong government that can take the necessary decisions and actions.

I've no time for the Liberal Democrat complainers who say they have been betrayed. What do they want? Have they enjoyed their years of impotence?

No Liberal Democrat (or their predecessors) has been able to gain a position of power within the lifetime of most us. Now we have the rare and exciting occurrence of Liberal Democrats being in a position to influence affairs, with five sitting in the Cabinet, and many others in junior ministerial positions. Moreover we now have a Liberal Democrat Deputy Prime Minister. This has been the stuff of dreams for generations.

I hope this will usher in a new era of civilized politics. The new Coalition has made a good start by taking a 5% reduction in salary of all government ministers, frozen for five years; I also applaud the proposed introduction of fixed-term parliaments (thus taking away from the Prime Minister the right to call an election any time he sees fit to suit his own purpose). Both the Tories and the Lib-Dems have had to sacrifice some of their extreme and cherished policies. Good.

UK GENERAL ELECTION

So now we know .. it's May 6th.

For the first time in my life I am a "floating voter".

I am a "don't know".

I am looking forward to the first-ever TV debates between the Leaders of the Labour Party, Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats, even though I'm sure it's not going to be a very spontaneous affair. It's a step in the right direction.

Even if (and it's a big IF) the Conservatives come up with some attractive policies, they are still opposed to the reform of the voting system. Our voting system is not democratic. I am, heart and soul, a democrat.

Therefore, as a floating voter, if I finish up floating in the direction of voting Conservative, then we can all look forward to some skating sessions on the frozen lakes of Hell.

What do we want from our Political Leaders?

All this media furore on the subject of Prime Minister Brown's alleged bullying of his staff (most of which has recently been thrown into doubt anyway), coupled with our apparent obsession with the man's general character, likeability, and so on, leads me to wonder why our democratic process has progressively turned into an "X Factor" competition without the music.

The Conservatives have been putting up huge billboard posters showing an airbrushed pretty-boy photo of their leader David Cameron and a message saying "we can't go on like this".

It's all become too personalised. It's a beauty contest. Where is the information on what the Parties are really proposing to do? Even when the Conservatives feel able to feed us with the odd policy proposal or two, after a couple of weeks have gone by they've changed their tune and the policy's been altered.

Who cares if Gordon Brown is a difficult man to work with? Who cares if he gets angry when he can't get things done that he wants done? It's what you might expect from someone who has anything about him with the demands of the top job on his shoulders.

Successful War Leader, Winston Churchill, was famously grumpy, irascible, prone to excessive drinking and bouts of depression. The people who worked with him accepted that and got on with the job. Now we have a load of wimps in No.10 Downing Street who can't hack it.

Clement Attlee, who led the immediate post-war Labour Government wouldn't have had any success at all in today's popularity stakes; he was quietly spoken and looked like an old-fashioned High Street Bank Manager. And yet Attlee successfully led a government that revolutionised a bankrupt British society after the ravages of war; he nationalised the railways, gas, electricity and water, and set up the National Health Service. And he did all this within 5 years.

I don't want our political leaders to be fussing about how popular they are, how nice they are, how good looking they are, how well they come over on television, how many people they are going to upset with some policy or other. I want them to be people with some kind vision about what kind of society they want, and have the ability to inspire the people around him to come up with the goods.

I don't think it is necessary for our Prime Ministers to be invited on to chat shows to demonstrate they are normal human beings who are able to weep in public about their personal tragedies.

Whatever one might think about Labour Party policies, Gordon Brown stands head and shoulders above the Conservative's David Cameron and the Liberal Democrat's Nick Clegg, both of whom appear to me to be lightweight wimps blowing around in the wind.

Electoral Reform & the Conservative Party

UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown has come round to the view that we should replace our "first-past-the-post" voting system with something fairer. The cynical view is that, having recognised that he looks like losing the General Election this year, he has come up with this wheeze.

Personally, whatever his reason, I welcome his proposal that Parliament should vote on providing us with a Referendum on whether or not we should switch to the "Alternate Vote" system. As the Liberal Democrats have said, it doesn't go far enough towards true democracy (they want full-blown Proportional Representation), but this is a welcome step in the right direction.

Instead of placing an X against one candidate, we would be invited to number the candidates 1,2,3 etc. in order of preference. Candidates losing out on first preference would have their votes redistributed until such time as one candidate commands the support of at least 50% of the voters.

This at least would get rid of the current preposterous system, whereby any candidate who manages to get more votes than his nearest rival is elected - and more often than not finishes up representing well under 50% of the vote. When this is magnified across all the constituencies we finish up with the Party gaining the most seats forming a government which in reality often represents only 30% of the popular vote. And they call that democracy!

Whenever I hear the leader of the Conservative Party, David Cameron, or any of his pompous acolytes supporting the present system on the grounds that it has "served us very well over the years" my blood pressure rockets and I'm tempted to reach for the nearest supply of Valium. What they mean is that it has served them very well over the years .. to pretend that it is democracy is nothing short of criminal stupidity.

It is only democratic in a two-Party system, and we do not have a two-Party system.

Wake up Conservatives! You are not getting my vote until or unless you agree to a fair voting system.

Jeremy Paxman meets his Match

Jeremy Paxman, scourge of the Political Animal Kingdom, was reduced to laughter last night when he interviewed Boris Johnson at the Conservative Party Conference. Paxman, with his usual dogged persistence was trying to get a straight answer out of "Bo-Jo" on the proposed new European Constitution set out in the Lisbon Treaty, and whether a Conservative Government would still give us a Referendum on the matter even if it was ratified by the two countries (Poland and the Czech Republic) still remaining in the ratification process. It was noted that Ireland had now said YES in their recent referendum. (Our Labour Government had already ratified the Treaty without the referendum that they had promised us).

When pressed, Boris came up with the line that he was ".. only the Mayor of London - merely a toe-nail on the body politic". At this point Paxman gave up the unequal struggle.

Electoral Reform & the Conservative Party

Having almost reached a point where I might have considered voting Conservative at the next General Election I read in today's papers that they are opposed to reform of the voting system.

So long as they are content with MPs being elected on a minority vote I shall not support the Conservative Party, since it cannot claim to be democratic. "First-past-the-post" has served both them and the Labour Party well over the years, and I see the Conservatives' opposition to change as being entirely self-serving. I am not asking for full-blown PR with Party Lists. A simple one MP per constituency is fine, so long he or she represents more than 50% of the vote. We all know there are ways of achieving this.

Conservatives .. please wake up to the basic idea of democracy.

This makes me angry when politicians are supposedly wondering why people are disenchanted with politics.

More on "New Labour" .. some credit?

Yesterday I was pretty churlish about the present Labour Government, and I do not detract from anything I said. But in my enthusiasm to criticise I had forgotten that there have been two or three good aspects to the Labour era.

Looking back at a number of governments and Prime Ministers it seems to me that each one can only be remembered favourably on one or two counts, whilst everything else they did was either neutral or negative in effect. For example, Winston Churchill was a great war leader, and his ability to inspire not just us, but those who were persuaded to join the fight against the German Nazis, cannot be disputed. And yet his record as a peace-time Prime Minister was distinctly underwhelming.

The Post-war Labour government of Clement Attlee can be remembered with pride for the creation of the National Health Service. It is still with us, and God help anyone who has the temerity to suggest that it should be dismantled.

The Conservative Administration of Margaret Thatcher or (as the late great Clement Freud called her) Attila the Hen can be remembered as the government that destroyed the tyranny of the Trade Unions and democratized them. Having done that she might as well have packed her bags, because in my opinion she did nothing else memorable except to cause misery and divisiveness: she was an arrogant, self-opinionated fanatic who (together with her buddy Ronal Reagan) sowed the seeds for the financial disaster that we are now experiencing.

Some governments are memorable for having nothing good to be memorable for, such as the Conservative Administrations of Ted Heath and John Major, and the Labour Administrations of Harold Wilson and James Callaghan.

And so we come to our present Labour Government: yes, they have done one or two good things and should be given credit. One was the National Minimum Wage, something the Conservatives fought tooth and nail against and would never have introduced such a thing. Another was devolution to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (though only 8 our 10 for this because there was no devolution for England). Then there have been the annual Winter Fuel Payments for senior citizens, and also free bus travel for them, again a couple of measures the Tories would never have introduced.

So, one and a half cheers for New Labour. But alas, it will still be farewell some time next year.

Bye-bye New Labour

I've said it before, and (because I'm a boring old fart) I'll say it again .. Opposition Parties don't win elections, Governments lose them.

I think it's becoming clear enough to most people in the UK that come the next General Election (due in 2010) the chances of Labour getting back in for a fourth time are approximately zilch.

This is not because David Cameron's Conservative Party have anything particularly inspiring on offer; rather it is because Gordon Brown's Labour Government is becoming a bit of a laughing stock in much the same way that John Major's government was towards the end of the last Conservative administration.

All power corrupts, and in recent years we have seen that amply demonstrated. Tony Blair swept in on a tide of enthusiasm in 1997 promising to be whiter than white after the Conservative government's embarrassing "Cash for Questions" scandals, and miscellaneous scandals of a sexual kind.

Then we had, under New Labour, the Iraq debacle, donations to secure exemptions from legislation, donations to "buy" peerages, and more recently under the Gordon Brown administration, the infamous e-mail sent by his senior political adviser to a colleague suggesting various ways of running personal smear campaigns against Conservative front-benchers (and their wives). Gordon Brown - in a statement somewhat reminiscent of a Communist dicatorship - said "I accept full responsibility, that's why the person who did it has now gone".

The rich have become richer and the poor have become poorer, whilst at the same time women's wages continue to be lower than those for men for doing similar work; therefore it is clear to me that Labour has failed miserably, since it's whole reason for existence has always been to produce a fairer society.

We have also become the Surveillance State with more CCTV cameras watching our every move than anywhere else in the world. Meanwhile the government is also intent on forging ahead with an expensive and intrusive national identity card scheme (which, to the Conservatives' credit they promise to abandon .. if they are to be believed). Now there are plans to force communications companies to store records of all phone, text, and e-mail messages from everyone in the land. Some Local Councils are using anti-terrorism regulations to enforce ridiculous rules about how much, and what exactly, you are allowed to put in your waste disposal wheelie bins, and using underhand tactics to monitor your activities in this regard.

Well, Gordon Brown, I'm sorry to say this as an ex Labour Party Member and fervent adherent to left-of-centre politics, but come the next Election we shall surely be saying good-bye to you. God knows what we'll get in your place, and our crazy "first-past-the-post" electoral system will, as usual, ensure that the country's fate will be decided by a couple of dozen marginal constituencies.

I have no idea who I'm going to vote for, or even if I'll vote at all. Good grief - I can't believe I just said that!